Wednesday, January 4, 2012

As Beijing gets nervous of a DPP victory

l  The chairman of China’s Political Consultative Conference (PCC), Jia Qinglin, reiterated that the “1992 consensus” is the basis for continued cross-Strait dialogue and exchange.

l  Jia stressed that if “1992 consensus” is challenged, there would be “dire consequences” in cross-Strait relations, including possible suspension of the 15 agreements signed.

l  On the other hand, Jia also extended an olive branch by declaring that sensitive issues like Taiwan’s international space can be negotiated between the two sides, if the “1992 consensus” remains intact and adhered to by Taiwan’s next leader.

l  The timing of Jia’s statements could indicate one of two things, or possibly both: (1) Beijing has sensed that the prospects of DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen winning the race is increasing, and Beijing feels “compelled to remind” Taiwanese people of possible setbacks in bilateral ties, and (2) Tsai’s election would mean that Beijing’s policies toward Taiwan since 2008 have largely failed, which could lead to wholesale changes in China’s Taiwan policy.

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